Popular question concerning natural gas prices:  Prices are so low ($2.03 today).  How much lower can they go?

Answer: the US is expected to run out of storage space for nat gas this summer.  Once that happens, I think we will see a capitulation in nat gas.  But that capitulation could come at much lower prices.  It's not out of the question for nat gas to trade at $1.25-$1.50 this summer.

UPDATE April 17th:  Nat gas broke below $2.00 today...

What are your thoughts?--- post in the comments section below...

Watchlist Addition April 10th:  Northern Oil and Gas (NOG): Here's a great Bakken producer with an efficient non-operator model.  Shorts have taken control of this name over the past few weeks, but its starting to show signs of life at the $20 support area.  Notice the falling wedge, and also notice the ADX rising above the -DI line (red circle).   This is a classic v-bottom setup.  No entry yet, but I am keeping a very close eye on it.

UPDATE April 12th:  Added to my NOG position at $20.50 this morning.

UPDATE April 17th:  NOG took a dive yesterday along with other oil and gas names.  I lightened up my position at a small loss, but I am still holding a core position from $20.90.  Patience on this one... 

disclosure: I am long NOG from the $21 area.

Energy stocks are getting smoked over the past few days.  However, the receent sell off is creating some very good buying opportunities.  Best to keep cash levels high for now and stalk low-risk/ high-reward trades.  I will post them as I see them....

Watchlist Addition April 4th:  Devon Energy (DVN) - Pullback to MA support after a high volume breakout a few months ago.  For an aggressive entry buy now.  For a more conservative entry wait until a break above the red resistance line at $73.00 for entry.  Company just announced they're increasing cap-ex spending by $1 billion for 2012.

UPDATE 4/10:  DVN broke below support on the broad market sell off today.  If you took the aggressive entry at the trendline support on April 4th you should have closed the trade for a small loss today.  Still a good long opportunity, but wait for a better setup.  I will be revisiting this one soon.

disclosure: no position in DVN yet.

Watchlist Addition April 3rd: Northern Oil and Gas (NOG) - Watching for a breakout above $21.25.  Notice the price compression on the hourly chart.  Low ADX reading means big price movement coming soon.  This is an aggressive trade because NOG is in a short-term downtrend.  But with the high short interest in this name it could get a nice short-covering pop.

UPDATE 4/4: Broke below support on weak broad market open and falling oil.  Breakout above $21.25 didn't happen, so no entry on this pattern yet.  Will keep watching.

disclosure: I am long NOG

Energy stock technical pattern watchlist for April 2nd, 2012

LNG:  Bull Flag- watching for a breakout above $15.00

UPDATE 4/3: Long from $15.10 and holding

UPDATE 4/5: Broke over $16 today and testing recent highs at $16.50

UPDATE 4/10: CLOSED LNG LONG TRADE @ $16.00

FSYS:  Bull flag- Buy the bottom of the flag now, or wait for a confirmed breakout above $28.00

UPDATE 4/2: FSYS broke below support today. Pattern negated.

WTI: 200 DMA bounce- stop under last Thursday lows.

UPDATE 4/3: Holding long, needs to move soon though.

UPDATE 4/16: Stopped out of this trade last week when it broke below support.

ROYL: Trendline and Moving Average support

disclosure: i am long ROYL at $5.09

UPDATE 4/3: Closed ROYL @ Breakeven- Time stop

Here's are a few long setups I'm watching today March 29th

CLR Pullback to moving average support.

UPDATE: Trimmed some profits today on CLR but still long May $85 calls

UPDATE 4//3: Closed May $85 calls

WLL Pullback to trendline support

UPDATE: WLL still displaying relative weakness.  Still long but watching closely

OAS support bounce

UPDATE:  Took profits on this one today as it entered MA resistance.